7-18-05,10:23am
BISSAU, 15 Jul 2005 (IRIN) - The second round of Guinea-Bissau's presidential election is heading towards an unpredictable finish on 24 July, with both the country's main political parties split over which candidate to support.
Former military ruler Joao Bernardo 'Nino' Vieira looks best placed to win on paper, having picked up the support of former president Kumba Yala, who took 25 percent of the vote in the first round of the election on 19 June.
But Yala's Social Renovation Party (PRS) is split down the middle over whether to agree to support Vieira, who first came to power in a 1980 coup and ruled this small West African country for 19 years until he was forced to quit in 1999 as a result of civil war.
The PRS is the main opposition party in parliament and draws most of its support from Yala's Balanta ethnic group, which accounts for 30 percent of Guinea-Bissau's 1.3 million population.
But the Balantas have traditionally regarded Vieira as someone who persecuted them and many leading figures in the PRS have chosen to openly support his rival, Malam Bacai Sanha, instead.
Bacai Sanha, the official candidate of the ruling African Party for the Independence of Guinea Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC), came top of the poll in the first round of voting with 35 percent, but the PAIGC is also split by divided loyalties.
Many leading figures in the PAIGC, which won parliamentary elections last year, are backing Vieira, who won 29 percent in the first of the vote in the first round of the election. The former army general was a popular PAIGC guerrilla commander during the bush war against Portuguese colonial rule that led to independence in 1974. He used the party to rule the country during his long rein as military head of state.
'If I win the elections, there will never again be bloodshed in Guinea-Bissau,' he told a rally in the northern town of Patche on Thursday.
Vieira's two decades of strong-arm rule saw dozens of people face the firing squad and it took a civil war to force him to relinquish power and retreat to exile in Portugal.
Vieira, who is now 67, has been trying to gloss over the violence of his political past and present himself as the flag-bearer of 'national unity, stability and development.'
His campaign speeches have been peppered with promises to build new roads, bridges, schools and hospitals, and restore a regular electricity supply to this poor country of low lying swamp and savannah woodland, which relies on exports of cashew-nuts and fish.
But Vieira has nevertheless been forced to justify the bloody repression meted out during his earlier period as head of state.
Referring to the execution of six politicians in 1985 for planning an alleged coup against him, Vieira told a rally in the southern town of Cassaca on Thursday, 'At the present time people are accusing me of killing a lot of people, but that is not true. It was the law that ordered these people to be executed, not me, Nino.'
Those officially executed following the 1985 coup plot included Vieira's vice-president at the time, Paulo Correia, and several other leading figures from the Balanta community. A score of mostly Balanta military officers also faced the firing squad without the benefit of a trial, according to reports at the time.
Vieira has tried to improve his credentials with Guinea-Bissau's Balanta community by appearing constantly in public accompanied by Yala. This former philosophy teacher was elected president in 2000 only to be overthrown by a bloodless coup three years later after his government descended into administrative chaos and virtual bankruptcy.
There has been a much tenser atmosphere during the campaign for the second round ballot than during the first round campaign, when political rallies attracted thousands of people and were accompanied by much singing and dancing.
A total 87 percent of Guinea-Bissau's 538,000 registered voters turned out to cast their ballot.
This time round, the crowds are smaller and supporters of the rival candidates regular jeer each other and exchange insults in public. In the capital Bissau, stone throwing incidents have also been reported by campaign officials from both sides, prompting the National Election Commission to urge both candidates to show tolerance and moderation.
Bacai Sanha has continued to draw more people to his mass meetings than Vieira, but both men have focussed more on small-scale meetings with local communities than big set piece rallies.
And Vieira has so far ignored Bacai Sanha's challenge to hold a face-to-face broadcast debate.
The first round of the election was universally praised by international observers for being free, fair, peaceful and well organised. The second round also will be closely monitored by international observer teams.
The biggest of these is from the European Union, which is planning to field 80 election monitors across the country.
The presidential election is due to set the seal on Guinea-Bissau's return to constitutional government nearly two years after the coup that overthrew Yala.
International donors, who are currently helping the government to pay the wages of civil servants and soldiers, have warned the country's rival factions that continued aid flows will be dependent on continued peace and stability.
