7-31-05, 9:21 am

Researcher Tao Wenzhao, and associate researcher Li Xiaogang with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) were interviewed by People's Daily Reporter Wu Yingchun.

The US Defense Department's annual report on China's military strength it published on July 19 played the same old tune of 'China threat theory'. The Chinese side has lodged solemn representations with the US part. International observers, experts and scholars analyzed the intentions of the report and raised criticisms of it.

Reporter: Why did the US Defense Department publish the report on China's military power, what does it mainly preach?

Tao Wenzhao: According to the '2000 National Defense Authorization Act', the US Congress requires that the National Defense Department submit a report on China's military power to the Congress every year. This shows many people in the US Congress have doubts and misgivings about China's development, the 'China threat theory' still has a market there.

Previous years' reports were published at an earlier time, but this year the report was released very late. It is said that the reason for the repeated postponements was that there were different opinions on some issues between the Defense Department on the one hand and the National Security Council and the State Department on the other. After the Defense Department has prepared the draft, it has to solicit the opinions of the State Department, the National Security Council and others.

If both sides are divided on some issues, they will conduct consultations and make revisions. If both sides fail to reach an agreement, they will hand over the contradiction to the president for a ruling. Therefore, the report mainly reflects the viewpoints of the Defense Department, but to some extent it is also the result of a compromise between the two sides with the Defense Department as one side, and the State Department and the National Security Council as the other side.

This sign is rather obvious in this year's report. For instance, the report says that China is at the crossroads of a strategic option, China can be fused into the world peacefully and begin benign competition; China can also exert dominant influence in the aspect of its expansion.

In the views of those hawkish lords in the Defense Department, they will not write the first possibility into the report. So the report we now see is the one after repeated revisions on the basis of the manuscript of the Defense Department, the most groundless and most alarmist parts have been deleted. Nevertheless, the purport of the report that exaggerates China's military power and advertises the 'China threat theory' from the military angle remains unchanged.

Reporter: Under what backdrop was the report published, and what is its aim?

Li Xiaogang: There are mainly three reasons explaining why the report fusses about 'China threat'.

Firstly, beginning from the end of last year, one notable tendency of US foreign strategy is that its counter-terrorism color is fading, and its foreign policy has begun to return to what it was like before the 'September 11' incident in 2001, statements on coping with potential big-power challenges have reemerged.

Secondly, although the current situation in Iraq remains turbulent, the outcome is a foregone conclusion; there are signs showing relaxation in Palestine-Israel relations; 'democratization' symptoms have initially emerged in Lebanon, Egypt and Syria. US strategic pressure in the Greater Middle East region has diminished accordingly, this makes it possible for it to divert part of its energy and attention to other regions, so the American anti-China forces once again regard China as a target of attack.

Thirdly, since the Iraq war, although the hard strength of the United States is still peerless, its soft strength has seriously weakened, its international image has been greatly reduced. Seeing that US influence is declining while China's influence is on the rise in the East Asian region, US right-wing forces are psychologically imbalanced, thinking that China has benefited itself by taking advantage of the opportunity offered by US busyness with the anti-terrorism war.

They feel anxious about China's rapid economic development and the constant enhancement of its national strength, worrying that the expansion of China's influence would gradually weaken America's leading role in the Asia-Pacific region and thus finally form a challenge to US hegemony. It was out of such a mindset of 'suspecting the neighbor of stealing a cauldron' that the report obstinately tries to find a basis for its anti-China stand, and deliberately twists the active role China plays in the international community.

For instance, the report describes China's participation in the peacekeeping operations in Haiti as trying to expand its effect in the sphere of US influence. China's active participation in the multilateral mechanism in the Asia-Pacific region is also regarded as an attempt to weaken US influence in this region, etc.

With an assumption of figures and subjective guess, the report alleges that the development of China's military strength has broken the balance of forces in the Taiwan Straits and even in the Asia-Pacific region, and that China has become a 'potential threat' to America's interests.

US Los Angeles Times points out bluntly: In exaggerating 'China threat', the Pentagon's aim is to get more military expenditures.

Reporter: The report utters irresponsible remarks on China's Taiwan issue, what is it up to?

Tao Wenzhao: Chapter 6 of the report is 'PRC Force Modernization and Security in the Taiwan Strait'. The report points out: Due to China's economic growth, diplomatic levers, the military power development of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, including the modernization of navy, air force and missiles, 'Taiwan is further required to have anti-control measures, so as to prevent it from being speedily overwhelmed by the mainland'.

The report adds that in the past decade, Taiwan's military expenditures have actually been on the decline, and so on and so forth. The report also lists some comparative figures of cross-Strait military strengths. Some American scholars had earlier pointed out that the writer of the report weighed his words for this passage over and again. If the contrast of cross-Strait military strengths is depicted as sharply unbalanced, that would make the Taiwan authorities lose their confidence; if the contrast is described as not so unbalanced, then it would deprive the United States of any reason to sell weapons to Taiwan.

As a result, there appears the present wording that reads as follows: Taiwan is required to have 'anti-control measures', obviously, this means continuing to persuade Taiwan to purchase US weapons. In April 2001, the Bush administration promised to sell a large batch of weapons to Taiwan, including anti-submarine airplanes, submarines, destroyers, 'Patriot-3 interception ballistic missiles. But because the price is too high, the transaction is not yet closed to date.

The US Defense Department has sent out people several times, and it resorts to both soft and hard tactic, it applies both pressure on the Taiwan authorities and influence on the 'blue camp', requiring Taiwan to pass the military purchase budget. This can be regarded as the heart disease of the US Defense Department. To a great extent, Chapter 6 of the report serves this purpose.

Reporter: What influence will the report have on China-US relationship?

Tao Wenzhao: Recently, the 'China threat theory' has reared its head again in the United States. The report of the US Defense Department has joined in this chorus, this will bring about some negative influence on Sino-US relations, but will not necessarily stir up any billow.

President George W. Bush recently said that China-US relationship is a good, important and vigorous and yet complicated relationship. Clearly, the Bush administration attaches importance to China-US relations, testifying to this is that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited China twice in April.

Li Xiaogang: The repeated revisions and postponements of publication of the report show that the importance placed on the development of China-US ties by President Bush, the State Department and the National Security Council from the perspective of the general situation makes it impossible for the extreme anti-China forces in the Defense Department to do as they please.

While playing up 'China threat', the report has to admit that the US strategic need of China in the aspect of international security assumes an upward trend. For instance, the report says that China has 'unique potential' in promoting denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.

As a matter of fact, along with China's economic development and the enhancement of its international influence, the common interests of China and the United States have expanded instead of decreasing. The United States cannot solve the nuke issue of the Korean Peninsula, the Iranian nuclear issue and the issue concerning Iraqi reconstruction without China's cooperation. At present, on the nuke issue of the Korean Peninsula, the United States especially needs China's help, hoping China to use its political and economic influence and cooperate with the United States to promote denuclearization in the Korean Peninsula.

In addition, although China's military input has increased in recent years, the increase rate, however, is not as big as its inputs in economic and cultural fields and China's advancement of military modernization is aimed mainly at Taiwan's secessionist forces. China's move against 'Taiwan independence' constitutes a deterrent to the malignant development of 'Taiwan independence' forces, objectively increasing the weight of US warning to the Taiwan authorities. At least for the moment, stopping 'Taiwan independence' and maintaining the status quo of the Taiwan Straits conforms to the common security interests of China and the United States.

By People's Daily Online