8-23-05,10:07am

One deadline was already missed by the drafters of Iraq's constitution. A second deadline seems likely to pass unmet. Even if a draft constitution is submitted on time, there is little likelihood that it will be the panacea to Iraq's insurgency, as advertised by the Bush administration.

Ensconced in the Green Zone, far removed from the violence, squalor, and fear plaguing the rest of Iraq, the drafting committee of Iraq's constitution haggle over such abstractions as federalism and democracy - meaningless hypotheticals to those suffering and dying beyond the ramparts.

The drafters bicker, well-fed air-conditioned in the militarily secure comfort of the Green Zone, while their countrymen wither beneath constant violence and annihilating heat - wallowing in filth, walking streets turned into open sewers, cursing the all-too-frequent blackouts, becoming increasingly desensitized to the horrors of death and dismemberment.

The Green Zone is not Iraq. It is a gated community, safely secluded from the mayhem and misery thriving outside. In the Green Zone, philosophical discussions on democracy are a luxury, unaffordable to those being slaughtered beyond the gates. To the sufferers, security is paramount and a constitution is therefore meaningless if it cannot provide that security. By all indications, the pending draft of Iraq's constitution cannot so provide.

By way of example, on the eve of the current constitutional deadline, the Shiite and Kurdish factions promised to deliver a draft constitution on time to the Iraqi National Assembly, Sunnis be damned. As far as the Shiite and Kurdish drafters are concerned, the constitution will be drafted on time, come Hell or high water. Judging from the Sunni reaction to this attitude, Hell cannot be discounted. If they are left out, Sunni members of the drafting committee have vowed to renounce Iraq's political process and will urge Sunnis and Shiites alike to reject the draft constitution. Far more ominously, the Sunnis have also put Iraq on notice that the Shiite/Kurdish constitution will plunge the country into civil war.

These are not idle threats. Recall that while Iraq's Sunni population is in the minority, it once ruled Iraq and continues to lick its wounds after losing its dominance with the ouster of Saddam. Recall further that Iraq's Sunnis boycotted the January elections and are at the heart of the anti-occupation insurgency.

If the Sunnis promise to renounce the political process, it's a safe bet that they will. If they foresee a civil war, one likely looms on the horizon.

Even if the Sunnis do not renounce the Iraqi political process, the Shiite/Kurdish constitution is unlikely to survive. Under Iraq's U.S.-drafted transitional law, the constitution can be thwarted by two thirds of the voters from any three governorates. As luck would have it, there just happen to be three Sunni governorates. By forcing through a constitution without regard for Sunni wants and concerns, Iraq's Shiite and Kurdish drafters have virtually guaranteed a Sunni veto.

Put simply, as the Sunnis go, so goes Iraq.

Granted, many of the Sunnis' problems are of their own creation. Nevertheless, for Iraq to achieve any semblance of stability, the Sunnis must be on board. If they are not, as would appear to be the case, then things in Iraq will remain as they are - a country besieged by a ruthless insurgency. That's the best case scenario. Worst case? Full-fledged civil war.

The Sunnis are not going to sit idly by while Iraq's oil reserves are divvied up exclusively between the Shiites and Kurds, resulting in Sunni subjugation to both. Nor are the Sunnis likely to acquiesce to the institutionalization of Shia Islam, considered an apostasy of Islam by the Sunnis. (Indeed, when Iraq is described as becoming an Islamic Republic, it is more accurately becoming a Shiite Republic.) On the other hand, the Sunnis would also never accept the Kurdish vision of Iraq - secular and devoid of Islamic law.

Undoubtedly, if the draft constitution is submitted on time, President Bush will boast that democracy prevailed in Iraq. He will applaud himself for having the courage and the conviction to manipulate intelligence, subvert international law, exploit the nation's fear and sorrow, exaggerate the threat posed by a toothless tyrant, and invade Iraq on the post hoc basis of spreading democracy. He will surely beam with pride as he passes by the hundreds of white crosses lining the road to his ranch, to continue his vacation and, in his words, get on with his life. The meaninglessness of an Iraqi constitution submitted on time, but without Sunni inclusion, will indubitably elude him.

Ken Sanders is an attorney in Tucson,Arizona. His writing has been published by Common Dreams, Democratic Underground,Dissident Voice, Online Journal, Political Affairs,and Z Magazine.