CONAKRY, 20 Oct 2005 (IRIN) - Guinea’s government has announced that municipal elections, widely seen as a barometer of the country’s democratic future, will be held on 18 December but the opposition has yet to announce whether it will be on board.

'We’ll make a decision at the end of the week as to whether or not we’ll take part in December’s municipal elections,' Jean-Marie Dore, one of the leaders of the opposition coalition Republican Front for Democratic Change (FRAD), told IRIN following Tuesday’s presidential decree.

Facing pressure from the international community, Guinea has undertaken a program of political reforms needed to restart the flow of foreign aid, much of which has been frozen due to concerns over governance and human rights.

Analysts view the upcoming vote as a practical test of these reforms and a dry run for a peaceful transition should ailing President Lansana Conte, who took power in a 1984 coup, be unable to serve to the end of his term in 2010.

A report released in June by the international think-tank Crisis Group highlighted the importance of the municipal elections for a country it said was on the verge of becoming West Africa’s next failed state.

“They will largely determine the quality of Guinean democracy,” the report says. “If they fail, the presidential succession will likely be disastrous.”

But simply holding the elections will not be enough.

In the 2000 municipal campaign, the overwhelming victory of the ruling party amid charges of widespread fraud and intimidation fed the international community’s apprehensions. And the government’s failure to address these underlying problems led to the postponement of local elections which normally are to take place every four years.

For the poll to be credible this time round, the Crisis Group said in its report, the process would have to include liberalised airwaves, increased freedoms for political parties and an independent electoral commission.

There are signs that the international community is encouraged by Guinea’s progress as the UN Development Programme and the European Union said this week they will give US $500,000 and $2.4 million respectively to help organise the elections.

But the government’s promise to set up an autonomous electoral commission was rejected last week by the opposition FRAD’s leaders who said it was merely a consultative body and would not have the powers needed to ensure fair elections.

“The government is creating a tool to help the minister [of the interior] fine tune ways of cheating and committing fraud,” the FRAD’s Dore told Guinean media earlier this week. “This commission in no way meets our demands.”

Opposition leader Alpha Conde first raised the spectre of a boycott by declaring in July that his Rally of the Guinean People (RPG) party would not participate in the municipal elections. Other members of the FRAD, however, have not followed his lead thus far.

Much of the opposition sat out the 2002 parliamentary elections and, one year later, the presidential campaign after changes to the constitution allowed Conte to run for another term. With the field almost completely clear, the incumbent won with an official tally of 95 percent.

In a country where, despite a wealth of natural resources, more than half the population lives on less than a dollar a day and even basic services like water and electricity are in short supply, the government is an obvious target for criticism.

But Crisis Group also reminded the opposition of its responsibilities.

“It is vital that it re-engage for the municipal elections,” the report said.

“Concerted engagement by even the most sceptical is the only way forward.”