10-25-06, 12:57 pm
First, leaked insider information about the discussions of the Bush-appointed 'Iraq Study Group' appeared to suggest that it will advise Bush to change 'strategy' in Iraq. Then, White House spokesperson Tony Snow recently denied (with a straight face) that the Bush administration ever believed in a war policy called 'stay the course.'
Administration and military officials in Iraq have now started using the phrase 'timetable to peace' in their most recent claims about how great things are going there, suggesting the possibility for withdrawal in 18 months. Some Republican pundits on cable news talk shows are scrambling to disconnect the Iraq war from the 'war on terrorism' after years of the Bush administration trying so hard to link the two.
All of this new 'anti-war' chatter from the White House is a Karl Rove campaign trick to be sure. With polling data indicating that voters are increasingly discontented about the aimlessness, human and financial cost, and endlessness of the war, Republicans have become paranoid about their chances of holding onto power in Congress.
Some polling even shows that millions of voters strongly tie their concerns and anger over the war to their choices in the upcoming congressional elections. A new Washington Post/ABC poll shows that people who want a new direction in the Iraq war favor Democrats by about a 3-to-1 margin.
A MSNBC/McClatchy survey released on Tuesday indicates that voters in eight key states view Iraq and the economy as the number one and two issues for them in this election, despite massive White House efforts – in television ads and stump speeches – to turn the election into a referendum on terror as it did in 2004. In the country as a whole, according to the Washington Post/ABC poll, twice as many voters see the Iraq war as the number one issue as those who say terrorism is foremost on their minds.
Majorities in those eight key states disapprove of the handling of the war and want to see partial or complete withdrawal from Iraq. Disapproval ratings for President Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress have also grown in those key states.
These attitudes, according to the data, indicate that some key Senate races in these eight states strongly favor the fortunes of Democratic candidates such as challenger Bob Casey who seems poised to defeat Republican Sen. Rick Santorum resoundingly in Pennsylvania. Voters there view Santorum as too closely identifying with the Bush administration’s agenda and adopting extreme views on social issues.
In Ohio, Democratic Rep. Sherrod Brown, who is challenging incumbent Senator Mike DeWine, has opened a 9-point lead. In response, DeWine has run full speed away from the leadership of the Republican Party and the Bush administration, refusing to be seen in Bush's company.
In Montana, despite a three-term incumbency and millions of dollars at his command, Republican Sen. Conrad Burns has fallen behind Democratic challenger Jon Tester. Burns' arrogance and links to the Abramoff scandal – he apparently exchanged favors for Abramoff and his clients for golf trips and expensive box seats at sports events – have angered Montana voters. If reelected Burns’ actions in office will likely be defending himself on the hot seat in an ethics committee hearing.
In Tennessee, Rep. Harold Ford clings to a slim lead to replace outgoing Senate Majority leader Bill Frist (trying to avoid scrutiny of his own ethics problems). Rhode Island Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse has opened a slight lead over Republican incumbent Lincoln Chafee and Missouri Democrat Claire McCaskill has turned Republican Sen. Jim Talent's 'safe seat' into a dead heat.
In every case, the Republican candidates have abandoned the party's hard line war and economic policies in attempt to cover up for the last 12 years of Republican rule. Talent, for example, could be found on a cable talk show stammering about how troop withdrawal seems like a good idea.
Now that their jobs are in danger, many Republican congressional candidates seem to be saying, we didn't mean all of those years of tax cuts for the rich, outsourcing your jobs overseas, loopholes and giveaways to oil companies, the wave of Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff type scandals, our do-nothing approach to the health care crisis, and unthinking support for every single Bush administration policy on war and attack on civil liberties.
One key voting demographic is also showing signs of rebelling against one-party rule: independents.
According to the Washington Post/ABC poll, independent voters may be the key bloc that pushes Democratic candidates to victory on November 7th. People who identify explicitly as Democrats almost unanimously say they will be voting for Democratic congressional candidates. Republican voters are less sure, and some media reports suggest that this core group of Republican voters is shakier then they have been in the past. Democratic respondents expressed greater enthusiasm about this election than did Republican voters by a significant margin.
For their part, the poll shows, independent voters plan to vote for Democratic congressional candidates by a 2-to-1 margin. Three out of four independents view the country as on the wrong track and disapprove of the Republican-controlled Congress. Only 1/3 of independent voters see the Iraq war as worth fighting, a dramatic shift from the 2004 election. Most independent voters also say congressional Republicans share the blame for the Iraq war. Few give the Republicans credit for stopping terrorism.
So voters can expect to hear a lot of shrill nonsense from Republicans in the next few days. Some will hysterically claim that their opponents want to hand the country over to immigrants. Some candidates will be shockingly linked to the rogue 'Michael Moore wing' of the Democratic Party. Other Republicans will flip so far they will even claim they can get out of Iraq faster than any Democrat. Many will try to appear to be as much like their Democratic opponents as possible.
Voters have become immune to Rove-style manipulations of public opinion with hateful, divisive, and misleading rhetoric about who the real enemies of America. More voters are finding out that maybe Michael Moore wasn’t too far off in his criticisms of the war.
The trickery aside, however, voters who want this country to change the Bush administration's failed course understand they are going to have to vote Democratic, even if they don't agree with all of the positions of the particular candidate on their ballot. They know that a shift in control of Congress is the real goal – not the election of an individual – because it will force Bush to rethink the wrong track he has put us on.
A change in control of Congress may also set the stage for new leadership in the White House in 2008. Imagine a president who is ready to listen to the people, not just to large corporate donors and ideological extremists, and to set an agenda for peace, sustained economic growth, fixing the health care crisis, and reducing our dependence on oil. Let’s make it happen. Vote for change on November 7th.
--Joel Wendland is managing editor of Political Affairs and can be reached at
